Analysis

The RDX bitcoin adventure stays a rather large risk with regard to the company assets. As is true for all arbitragers in any traded commodity, a little volatility is welcome because it allows the arbitrager to make their typical profit from doing endless buy/sell transactions. At the same time, sudden volatility increases (when bitcoin rallies, or suddenly drops in value) are not welcome because either all bitcoins get sold or all fiat gets sold and the arbitrager suffers a large opportunity loss in either case.

Conclusion

The RDX 6 months average dividend yield hovers around 1.2% per month at this time. Under normal circumstances that would be pretty good, but with the current uncertainty about the future of the exchange because of the “skill game rules”  it is hard to make a conclusion for any company listed at Capex.

Charts

Analysis

The RDX 6 months average dividend yield is pretty good at this time, at 1.2% it’s lower than EARN offers, but much better than the exchange average.
If the CEO manages to keep the dividend growing the RDX shares will be sought after.

Conclusion

At this time there’s little criticism at RDX, except maybe that the RDX CEO seems to be the first at Capex to achieve an informational overload in his effort to explain the company policies.
Stance: hold/buy

Charts

Analysis

6 months average dividend yield is approaching 1% per month, the SPO went according to plan and filled in a record short time.

Conclusion

Rather surprisingly demand for the shares is still low despite so many missing out in the SPO.
Stance: hold, buy on dips

Charts

Analysis

The first three months for the “new” RDX have gone pretty good, at least as far as the scripting income is concerned. App sales haven’t really contributed much sofar. Still, those games will have to provide the income growth for RDX.
At a current dividend yield of around 0.8% RDX pays about twice the market average. Of course that’s a dangerous comparison to make because it disregards the huge differences in risk between companies.

Conclusion

If you’re looking to diversify dividend income, RDX might be interesting, if you’re looking to make capital gains, I’d say you’re too late. In my view the current shareprice already prices in significant growth.
Stance: hold/sell

Charts

Analysis

The market has embraced the “new and improved” RDX without any reservation for now, it seems. Since my last post the company has shifted course already, and now aims to bring in money through a scripting service as its main source of revenue, leaving less time to develop the iPhone games from the original business plan.
It must be said, the first month of operations brought in a decent dividend.

Conclusion

The problem with a one person custom scripting business is of course the lack of growth prospect. The growth will have to come from the games part of the business.
The problem with the current valuation of the company by the market is that it’s already priced as if it’s been generating stable dividends of around 300,000 L$ per month for an extended period, when all we have is a company with virtually no assets that paid 0.07 L$ after its first month.
For now I say the company is overpriced (or if you prefer, prematurely priced in unrealistic growth assumptions).
Stance:  sell

Charts

Analysis

Redux has returned, and I guess nobody at Capex can have not noticed by now. 79 posts in barely 2 weeks. In comparison, Redux posted 43 times since early 2011 until late June 2013. For sure, that’s an unrivaled flurry of posts in such a short time. Something surely must have shaken up the state of Denmark.
The market has responded with irrational exuberance (ty Alan Greenspan) pushing the RDX shares to levels not seen before.

Ok, so what’s the fuss all about? Redux returned with a story of an RDX that’s heavily indebted as a result of the funeral of the previous activities, but offering a glimmer of hope for the future with new activity, that he has already started.
After some discussion he opened a vote for shareholders to allow him to reinstate 750,000 of the previously destroyed shares in return for full cancellation of the RDX debt.
The vote will probably end positive, even though the 1.185 million treasury shares really shouldn’t vote, and people having voted shares they meanwhile don’t own anymore.

As for the future of RDX I do see some opportunity to make it work, in order to do so, the 750k reinstated shares should be considered Redux’ personal shares, while the other 1.185 million treasury shares would in my view best be sold in a soon to be held SPO. these being shares owned by the company already, the sale of these would not dilute the outlook on a per share basis, but instead, provide the company with some much needed cash to get things going for real.

Conclusion

Without an SPO as described above, I cannot be positive for the RDX shares, the current shareprice, at 3.88 L$ already assumes revenue 4 times as big as the amount mentioned by the CEO.  RDX needs to become a lot more succesful at selling Apps to justify a shareprice anywhere near where it trades right now.
Shareholders seem to forget there are already around 650,000 apps for the iPhone and iPad that compete for consumer attention. It’s not like Redux invented sliced bread.

Which is not to say there can’t be a bright future for the company, but you’d better think twice about buying these shares at the current price at this time.

Stance:  sell 

Charts

Will there be a recovery for RDX? No telling at this time, but the silence from the side of company management is not a good sign.

It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to produce new charts for RDX at this time. It appears the CEO has thrown the towel, after some adverse developments.
If you’re holding any RDX stock, you can keep your fingers crossed for a favourable outcome, but it seems more likely at this time that you’ll suffer a loss here.

What can be questioned is the persistance of the trading halt. I would think everyone with an interest in RDX has had ample time to read up on the newest developments, so I can’t really see a reason to keep the trading halt in place.